Line | Milankovitch proposed in the early twentieth |
| century that the ice ages were caused by variations |
| in the Earths orbit around the Sun. For some time |
| this theory was considered untestable, largely |
(5) | because there was no sufficiently precise |
| chronology of the ice ages with which the orbital |
| variations could be matched. |
| To establish such a chronology it is necessary to |
| determine the relative amounts of land ice that |
(10) | existed at various times in the Earths past. A |
| recent discovery makes such a determination |
| possible: relative land-ice volume for a given period |
| can be deduced from the ratio of two oxygen |
| isotopes, 16 and 18, found in ocean sediments. |
(15) | Almost all the oxygen in water is oxygen 16, but a |
| few molecules out of every thousand incorporate the |
| heavier isotope 18. When an ice age begins, the |
| continental ice sheets grow, steadily reducing the |
| amount of water evaporated from the ocean that |
(20) | will eventually return to it. Because heavier |
| isotopes tend to be left behind when water |
| evaporates from the ocean surfaces, the remaining |
| ocean water becomes progressively enriched in |
| oxygen 18. The degree of enrichment can be |
(25) | determined by analyzing ocean sediments of the |
| period, because these sediments are composed of |
| calcium carbonate shells of marine organisms, |
| shells that were constructed with oxygen atoms |
| drawn from the surrounding ocean. The higher the |
(30) | ratio of oxygen 18 to oxygen 16 in a sedimentary |
| specimen, the more land ice there was when the |
| sediment was laid down. |
| As an indicator of shifts in the Earths climate, |
| the isotope record has two advantages. First, it is a |
(35) | global record: there is remarkably little variation in |
| isotope ratios in sedimentary specimens taken from |
| different continental locations. Second, it is a |
| more continuous record than that taken from rocks |
| on land. Because of these advantages, sedimentary |
(40) | evidence can be dated with sufficient accuracy |
| by radiometric methods to establish a precise |
| chronology of the ice ages. The dated isotope |
| record shows that the fluctuations in global ice |
| volume over the past several hundred thousand |
(45) | years have a pattern: an ice age occurs roughly once |
| every 100,000 years. These data have established |
| a strong connection between variations in the Earths |
| orbit and the periodicity of the ice ages. |
| However, it is important to note that other |
(50) | factors, such as volcanic particulates or variations |
| in the amount of sunlight received by the Earth, |
| could potentially have affected the climate. The |
| advantage of the Milankovitch theory is that it |
| is testable; changes in the Earths orbit can be |
(55) | calculated and dated by applying Newtons laws of |
| gravity to progressively earlier configurations of the |
| bodies in the solar system. Yet the lack of |
| information about other possible factors affecting |
| global climate does not make them unimportant. |