| Line | Milankovitch proposed in the early twentieth |
| century that the ice ages were caused by variations | |
| in the Earths orbit around the Sun. For some time | |
| this theory was considered untestable, largely | |
| (5) | because there was no sufficiently precise |
| chronology of the ice ages with which the orbital | |
| variations could be matched. | |
| To establish such a chronology it is necessary to | |
| determine the relative amounts of land ice that | |
| (10) | existed at various times in the Earths past. A |
| recent discovery makes such a determination | |
| possible: relative land-ice volume for a given period | |
| can be deduced from the ratio of two oxygen | |
| isotopes, 16 and 18, found in ocean sediments. | |
| (15) | Almost all the oxygen in water is oxygen 16, but a |
| few molecules out of every thousand incorporate the | |
| heavier isotope 18. When an ice age begins, the | |
| continental ice sheets grow, steadily reducing the | |
| amount of water evaporated from the ocean that | |
| (20) | will eventually return to it. Because heavier |
| isotopes tend to be left behind when water | |
| evaporates from the ocean surfaces, the remaining | |
| ocean water becomes progressively enriched in | |
| oxygen 18. The degree of enrichment can be | |
| (25) | determined by analyzing ocean sediments of the |
| period, because these sediments are composed of | |
| calcium carbonate shells of marine organisms, | |
| shells that were constructed with oxygen atoms | |
| drawn from the surrounding ocean. The higher the | |
| (30) | ratio of oxygen 18 to oxygen 16 in a sedimentary |
| specimen, the more land ice there was when the | |
| sediment was laid down. | |
| As an indicator of shifts in the Earths climate, | |
| the isotope record has two advantages. First, it is a | |
| (35) | global record: there is remarkably little variation in |
| isotope ratios in sedimentary specimens taken from | |
| different continental locations. Second, it is a | |
| more continuous record than that taken from rocks | |
| on land. Because of these advantages, sedimentary | |
| (40) | evidence can be dated with sufficient accuracy |
| by radiometric methods to establish a precise | |
| chronology of the ice ages. The dated isotope | |
| record shows that the fluctuations in global ice | |
| volume over the past several hundred thousand | |
| (45) | years have a pattern: an ice age occurs roughly once |
| every 100,000 years. These data have established | |
| a strong connection between variations in the Earths | |
| orbit and the periodicity of the ice ages. | |
| However, it is important to note that other | |
| (50) | factors, such as volcanic particulates or variations |
| in the amount of sunlight received by the Earth, | |
| could potentially have affected the climate. The | |
| advantage of the Milankovitch theory is that it | |
| is testable; changes in the Earths orbit can be | |
| (55) | calculated and dated by applying Newtons laws of |
| gravity to progressively earlier configurations of the | |
| bodies in the solar system. Yet the lack of | |
| information about other possible factors affecting | |
| global climate does not make them unimportant. |
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