| Line | Milankovitch proposed in the early twentieth |
| | century that the ice ages were caused by variations |
| | in the Earths orbit around the Sun. For some time |
| | this theory was considered untestable, largely |
| (5) | because there was no sufficiently precise |
| | chronology of the ice ages with which the orbital |
| | variations could be matched. |
| | To establish such a chronology it is necessary to |
| | determine the relative amounts of land ice that |
| (10) | existed at various times in the Earths past. A |
| | recent discovery makes such a determination |
| | possible: relative land-ice volume for a given period |
| | can be deduced from the ratio of two oxygen |
| | isotopes, 16 and 18, found in ocean sediments. |
| (15) | Almost all the oxygen in water is oxygen 16, but a |
| | few molecules out of every thousand incorporate the |
| | heavier isotope 18. When an ice age begins, the |
| | continental ice sheets grow, steadily reducing the |
| | amount of water evaporated from the ocean that |
| (20) | will eventually return to it. Because heavier |
| | isotopes tend to be left behind when water |
| | evaporates from the ocean surfaces, the remaining |
| | ocean water becomes progressively enriched in |
| | oxygen 18. The degree of enrichment can be |
| (25) | determined by analyzing ocean sediments of the |
| | period, because these sediments are composed of |
| | calcium carbonate shells of marine organisms, |
| | shells that were constructed with oxygen atoms |
| | drawn from the surrounding ocean. The higher the |
| (30) | ratio of oxygen 18 to oxygen 16 in a sedimentary |
| | specimen, the more land ice there was when the |
| | sediment was laid down. |
| | As an indicator of shifts in the Earths climate, |
| | the isotope record has two advantages. First, it is a |
| (35) | global record: there is remarkably little variation in |
| | isotope ratios in sedimentary specimens taken from |
| | different continental locations. Second, it is a |
| | more continuous record than that taken from rocks |
| | on land. Because of these advantages, sedimentary |
| (40) | evidence can be dated with sufficient accuracy |
| | by radiometric methods to establish a precise |
| | chronology of the ice ages. The dated isotope |
| | record shows that the fluctuations in global ice |
| | volume over the past several hundred thousand |
| (45) | years have a pattern: an ice age occurs roughly once |
| | every 100,000 years. These data have established |
| | a strong connection between variations in the Earths |
| | orbit and the periodicity of the ice ages. |
| | However, it is important to note that other |
| (50) | factors, such as volcanic particulates or variations |
| | in the amount of sunlight received by the Earth, |
| | could potentially have affected the climate. The |
| | advantage of the Milankovitch theory is that it |
| | is testable; changes in the Earths orbit can be |
| (55) | calculated and dated by applying Newtons laws of |
| | gravity to progressively earlier configurations of the |
| | bodies in the solar system. Yet the lack of |
| | information about other possible factors affecting |
| | global climate does not make them unimportant. |