Line | Milankovitch proposed in the early twentieth |
century that the ice ages were caused by variations | |
in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. For some time | |
this theory was considered untestable, largely | |
(5) | because there was no sufficiently precise |
chronology of the ice ages with which the orbital | |
variations could be matched. | |
To establish such a chronology it is necessary to | |
determine the relative amounts of land ice that | |
(10) | existed at various times in the Earth’s past. A |
recent discovery makes such a determination | |
possible: relative land-ice volume for a given period | |
can be deduced from the ratio of two oxygen | |
isotopes, 16 and 18, found in ocean sediments. | |
(15) | Almost all the oxygen in water is oxygen 16, but a |
few molecules out of every thousand incorporate the | |
heavier isotope 18. When an ice age begins, the | |
continental ice sheets grow, steadily reducing the | |
amount of water evaporated from the ocean that | |
(20) | will eventually return to it. Because heavier |
isotopes tend to be left behind when water | |
evaporates from the ocean surfaces, the remaining | |
ocean water becomes progressively enriched in | |
oxygen 18. The degree of enrichment can be | |
(25) | determined by analyzing ocean sediments of the |
period, because these sediments are composed of | |
calcium carbonate shells of marine organisms, | |
shells that were constructed with oxygen atoms | |
drawn from the surrounding ocean. The higher the | |
(30) | ratio of oxygen 18 to oxygen 16 in a sedimentary |
specimen, the more land ice there was when the | |
sediment was laid down. | |
As an indicator of shifts in the Earth’s climate, | |
the isotope record has two advantages. First, it is a | |
(35) | global record: there is remarkably little variation in |
isotope ratios in sedimentary specimens taken from | |
different continental locations. Second, it is a | |
more continuous record than that taken from rocks | |
on land. Because of these advantages, sedimentary | |
(40) | evidence can be dated with sufficient accuracy |
by radiometric methods to establish a precise | |
chronology of the ice ages. The dated isotope | |
record shows that the fluctuations in global ice | |
volume over the past several hundred thousand | |
(45) | years have a pattern: an ice age occurs roughly once |
every 100,000 years. These data have established | |
a strong connection between variations in the Earth’s | |
orbit and the periodicity of the ice ages. | |
However, it is important to note that other | |
(50) | factors, such as volcanic particulates or variations |
in the amount of sunlight received by the Earth, | |
could potentially have affected the climate. The | |
advantage of the Milankovitch theory is that it | |
is testable; changes in the Earth’s orbit can be | |
(55) | calculated and dated by applying Newton’s laws of |
gravity to progressively earlier configurations of the | |
bodies in the solar system. Yet the lack of | |
information about other possible factors affecting | |
global climate does not make them unimportant. |