Line | There are recent reports of apparently drastic |
declines in amphibian populations and of extinctions | |
of a number of the world’s endangered amphibian | |
species. These declines, if real, may be signs of a | |
(5) | general trend toward extinction, and many |
environmentalists have claimed that immediate | |
environmental action is necessary to remedy | |
this “amphibian crisis,” which, in their view, is an | |
indicator of general and catastrophic environmental | |
(10) | degradation due to human activity. |
To evaluate these claims, it is useful to make a | |
preliminary distinction that is far too often ignored. | |
A declining population should not be confused with | |
an endangered one. An endangered population is | |
(15) | always rare, almost always small, and, by definition, |
under constant threat of extinction even without a | |
proximate cause in human activities. Its disappearance, | |
however unfortunate, should come as no great | |
surprise. Moreover, chance events—which may | |
(20) | indicate nothing about the direction of trends in |
population size—may lead to its extinction. The | |
probability of extinction due to such random factors | |
depends on the population size and is independent of | |
the prevailing direction of change in that size. | |
(25) | For biologists, population declines are potentially |
more worrisome than extinctions. Persistent | |
declines, especially in large populations, indicate a | |
changed ecological context. Even here, distinctions | |
must again be made among declines that are only | |
(30) | apparent (in the sense that they are part of habitual |
cycles or of normal fluctuations), declines that take | |
a population to some lower but still acceptable | |
level, and those that threaten extinction (e.g., by | |
taking the number of individuals below the minimum | |
(35) | viable population). Anecdotal reports of population |
decreases cannot distinguish among these | |
possibilities, and some amphibian populations have | |
shown strong fluctuations in the past. | |
It is indisputably true that there is simply not | |
(40) | enough long-term scientific data on amphibian |
populations to enable researchers to identify real | |
declines in amphibian populations. Many fairly | |
common amphibian species declared all but extinct | |
after severe declines in the 1950s and 1960s | |
(45) | have subsequently recovered, and so might |
the apparently declining populations that have | |
generated the current appearance of an amphibian | |
crisis. Unfortunately, long-term data will not soon | |
be forthcoming, and postponing environmental | |
(50) | action while we wait for it may doom species and |
whole ecosystems to extinction. |